Graph Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Traffic Forecasting
Graph Neural Controlled Differential Equations for Traffic Forecasting
Jeongwhan Choi Hwangyong Choi Jeehyun Hwang Noseong Park

Abstract
Traffic forecasting is one of the most popular spatio-temporal tasks in the field of machine learning. A prevalent approach in the field is to combine graph convolutional networks and recurrent neural networks for the spatio-temporal processing. There has been fierce competition and many novel methods have been proposed. In this paper, we present the method of spatio-temporal graph neural controlled differential equation (STG-NCDE). Neural controlled differential equations (NCDEs) are a breakthrough concept for processing sequential data. We extend the concept and design two NCDEs: one for the temporal processing and the other for the spatial processing. After that, we combine them into a single framework. We conduct experiments with 6 benchmark datasets and 20 baselines. STG-NCDE shows the best accuracy in all cases, outperforming all those 20 baselines by non-trivial margins.
Code Repositories
Benchmarks
| Benchmark | Methodology | Metrics |
|---|---|---|
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd3 | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 15.57 12 steps MAPE: 15.06 12 steps RMSE: 27.09 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd4 | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 19.21 12 steps MAPE: 12.76 12 steps RMSE: 31.09 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd7 | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 20.53 12 steps MAPE: 8.8 12 steps RMSE: 33.84 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd7-l | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 2.87 12 steps MAPE: 7.31 12 steps RMSE: 5.76 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd7-m | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 2.68 12 steps MAPE: 6.76 12 steps RMSE: 5.39 |
| traffic-prediction-on-pemsd8 | STG-NCDE | 12 steps MAE: 15.45 12 steps MAPE: 9.92 12 steps RMSE: 24.81 |
| weather-forecasting-on-noaa-atmospheric | STG-NCDE | MAE (t+1): 0.3582 ± 0.0616 MAE (t+10): 1.4095 ± 0.1836 |
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